NOAA predicts that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be close to normal

NOAA forecasts from Climate Prediction CenterThe National Weather Service predicts normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s 2023 Atlantic hurricane outlook, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance for a normal season, a 30% chance of a normal season, and a 30% chance of being below normal. Season.

NOAA predicts 12 to 17 total named hurricanes (winds of 39 mph or greater). 5 to 9 of these could be hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), 1 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5, winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has 70% confidence in these regions.

“Thanks to the Department of Commerce and NOAA’s significant investments in scientific and technological advances this year, NOAA will be able to provide more accurate forecasts that will help communities have the information they need to respond to the devastating economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” said Commerce Secretary Gina M. .Raymondo.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than in recent years, with competing conditions — some that inhibit hurricane development and some that fuel it — pushing this year’s overall forecast toward a more normal season.

After three hurricanes with La Niña, NOAA scientists are predicting high potential. To develop El Niño this winter, which can limit the movement of Atlantic storms. The potential impact of El Niño on hurricane development may be offset by favorable conditions in the warm Atlantic basin. These conditions include the possibility of an above-normal West African monsoon, which will generate African easterly waves and some strong and long-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Seas. It creates more energy for hurricane development. These factors are part of the long-term variability in the Atlantic atmosphere and ocean that is favorable for hurricane development – known as the peak activity period for Atlantic hurricanes – which has been producing more active Atlantic hurricanes since 1995.

“In a changing climate, the information and knowledge NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners has never been more critical to decision-making,” he said. “To that end, we are developing a new hurricane forecast model this year and extending the tropical storm outlook from five to seven days, giving emergency managers and communities more time to prepare for hurricanes.”

This summer, NOAA will implement a series of reforms and improvements. NOAA expands supercomputing system capacity by 20 percent. This increase in computing capacity will allow NOAA to improve and run more complex forecast models, including significant model improvements during this storm.

• By the end of June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) will be implemented. HAFS will work alongside the Hurricane Weather Research and Prediction Model System and Hurricanes Multiscale Ocean-Coupled Nonhydrostatic Model this season, but will eventually become NOAA’s flagship hurricane model. A retrospective analysis of tropical cyclones and hurricanes from the 2020-2022 season shows that this model has a 10-15% improvement in track predictions over existing operational models. This new model was developed jointly by NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Storm modeling and forecasting program And NOAA National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center.
• On May 2, the development of the probabilistic wave wave model update Increase the tide Tides and tides for the series US and new forecasts for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Forecasters now have the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously. This model provides predictions of the likelihood or probability of various flood scenarios, including worst-case scenarios, to help communities prepare for all possible outcomes.

Additional improvements or new tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting include:

• National Hurricane Center Tropical weather outlook The graphic, which shows the potential for tropical storms to form, extended the forecast from five to seven days.
• In the past 10 years, floods have been the only fatal disaster in the tropical monsoon rains. The Weather Forecast Center is extending it to give communities more time to prepare A view of excessive rain An additional two days, it now offers forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows the general areas vulnerable to flash floods due to rainfall.
• The National Weather Service has released a new generation of flood forecast maps for parts of Texas and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through September 2023. These forecast maps will extend to the rest of the US in 2026. Forecast flood maps show the extent of flooding on the street.

NOAA continues to develop new and up-to-date observing systems that are critical to understanding and predicting hurricanes. Two projects currently underway include:

“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread destruction and loss of life. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it’s important that everyone understands their risks and heeds the warnings of state and local authorities. “Whether you live on the coast or inland, hurricanes can cause serious damage to everyone in their path,” said FEMA Administrator Dean Criswell. “Visit ready.gov Or listo.gov For preparedness resources, and get real-time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA app. Actions taken today could save your life in the event of an emergency. It’s time to get ready.”

NOAA’s view is for general current activity, not landfall predictions. In addition to the Atlantic Current Outlook, NOAA also publishes Eastern Pacific Current Storm Views and central Pacific hurricanes. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update its 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, before the season’s historic peak.