The Gulf Stream System It may be demolished in 2025, a new study suggests. The shutdown of an important ocean current, known by scientists as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (Amok), can have devastating climate effects. From one report: Amok in global warming is known to be the weakest in 1600 years, and researchers see warning signs of a tipping point in 2021. The new analysis estimates a period of decline between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050, if global carbon emissions are not reduced. Data from past recessions suggests a 10C temperature change over a few decades, even though these occurred during the Ice Age.
Other scientists say the guesswork on how the tipping point will play out and the uncertainties in the data are too great to estimate the timing of the tipping point. But they all said the prospect of an amok collapse was too serious and that carbon emissions should be cut quickly. Amok drives warm ocean water northward toward the cooling pole, where it cools and sinks, the Atlantic Ocean’s currents. But it’s increasing the flow of fresh water from melting Greenland’s ice cap and other sources.