Dollar-Forex Weakness after US jobs data indicates a slower rate hike path

City says 7,000 summer jobs are available for Boston youth ages 14 to 18

by Herbert Lash

New York, March 10 (Reuters)The dollar weakened on Friday after US labor data for February showed a slowdown in wage growth, suggesting that easing inflation pressures may keep the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike pace modest and thus reduce the dollar’s attractiveness.

The US economy added jobs at a rapid rate in February, but slowing wage growth and rising unemployment prompted financial markets to backtrack on expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike when Fed policymakers meet in two weeks.

Congressional testimony earlier in the week by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was seen as hawkish and boosted the dollar as Treasuries pay more in yield than other government debt.

The dollar fell against all of the major currencies, but basically held steady against the Canadian dollar. dollar index = US dollarsthe currency trading basket, by 0.618%.

Adding to the decline in Treasury yields was Close SVB Financial GroupSIVB.Othe bank’s biggest failure since the financial crisis, as California regulators moved quickly to protect depositors in the startup-focused lender.

The yield on a standard 10-year Treasury note US10YT = RR It fell more than 22 basis points to less than 3.70% in the biggest one-day decline in four months. Bond yields move inversely to their price.

“There is a significant offer, in my opinion anyway, for a safe haven,” said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree. “There are concerns about potential banking stress.”

Average hourly earnings For all private sector workers, it rose 0.2% from 0.3% in January, raising the year-over-year figure to 4.6%. Economists had expected hourly earnings to rise 0.3% in February, which would have pushed wages up 4.7% annually.

Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst in Convera, Washington, said the dollar could be range bound as inflation slowing to the Fed’s 2% target is likely to be bumpy.

“When the market revises expectations for peak rates, we see the dollar take two steps higher. But once the dust settles, we see the dollar take a step back,” said Manimbo.

“The market is already expecting the Fed to pause this year, but exactly when is unknown.”

Fed funds futures fell to a probability of 41% up by 50 basis points when the Fed policy makers meet on March 22, compared to a probability of 71.6% a week ago, according to FedWatch CME.

Dec Mullarkey, managing director of investment strategy and asset positioning at SLC Management in Boston, said the market is ahead of the possibility of a 50 basis point hike at the next Fed meeting.

“A 25 basis point rate hike at this point makes more sense because it allows the Fed to continue tightening while extending the period in which it does so to allow the data to catch up,” he said.

euro EUR = It rose 0.57% to $1.064 and the pound sterling Sterling = It traded at $1.2024, up 0.83% on the day.

Andrzej Skiba, head of BlueBay’s U.S. fixed income team at RBC Global Asset Management in New York, said the “very important” consumer price index due March 14 is now front and center.

He said, “The focus now shifts to reading the consumer price index and general financial conditions in light of what is happening in the banking field in the United States.”

The Japanese yen rose 1.01% to 134.79 per dollar.

The dollar jumped earlier against the yen Japanese yen = EBS In an indirect movement after the Bank of Japan kept its policy without change At Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last political meeting before he stepped down in April.

While the “no surprises” decision was expected by most market watchers, many see the days of BOJ yield curve control (YCC) as numbered, which led to some pricing in the slim chance of a policy adjustment at Kuroda’s latest policy meeting. .

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Coin bid prices at 3:45 PM (2045 GMT)

a description



US close the previous session

Pct change

Change YTD in Pct

High bid

low bid

dollar index

= US dollars








Euro = EBS

1.0640 USD

1.0583 USD



+ $1.0702

+ 1.0574 USD

dollar / yen

Japanese yen = EBS







euro / yen








dollars / Swiss

Swiss Franc = EBS







British pound / dollar

British Pound = D3


1.1927 USD



+ $1.2113

+ $1.1910

Canadian Dollar

Canadian dollar = D3







Australian dollar / dollar

Australian dollar = D3





+ $0.6640

+ $0.6565

Euro / Swiss








Euro / British Pound








New Zealand dollar / New Zealand dollar

NZD = D3

0.6130 USD

0.6102 USD



+ $0.6176

+ $0.6091

dollar / Norway

NOK = D3







Euro / Norway








Dollar / Sweden

Swedish Krona =







EUR / Sweden








Wage growth is slowing

World currencies against the dollar IMG

(Reporting by Herbert Lash in New York; Additional reporting by Ray Wei and Elon John; Editing by Susan Fenton and Matthew Lewis)

(([email protected]; 1-646-223-6019; Reuters correspondence: [email protected]))

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Nasdaq, Inc.