Hong Kong (CNN) As many as 300 million full-time jobs worldwide could be automated in some way by the latest wave of artificial intelligence that has spawned platforms like ChatGPT, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
They predicted in a report on Sunday that 18% of work globally could be computerized, with the effects being felt more deeply in advanced economies than in emerging markets.
In part, this is because white-collar workers are seen as more vulnerable than manual workers. It is expected that administrative workers and lawyers will be the most affected, economists said, compared to the “minor impact” observed on occupations that require physical exertion or outside professions, such as construction and repair work.
In the US and Europe, nearly two-thirds of existing jobs are “subject to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all work could be done entirely by AI, the bank estimates.
Economists write that if generative AI “delivers its promised capabilities, the job market could face significant disruption.” The term refers to The technology behind ChatGPT, the bot sensation that has taken the world by storm.
ChatGPT, which can respond to prompts and write articles, has already pushed many companies to rethink How should people work every day.
This month, the software developer revealed the latest version of the software behind the bot, GPT-4. The platform has a speed The first users were impressed With its ability to simplify programming, quickly build a website from a simple sketch and pass exams with high marks.
Economists at Goldman Sachs write that further use of such artificial intelligence will likely lead to job losses. They point out, however, that technological innovation that initially displaces workers has historically led to employment growth in the long run.
While workplaces may change, the widespread adoption of AI could eventually lead to increased labor productivity — and an increase in global GDP by 7% annually over 10 years, according to Goldman Sachs.
The economists added, “Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are therefore likely to be supplemented rather than replaced by AI.”
“Most workers work in jobs that are partially exposed to AI automation and, after adopting AI, are likely to apply at least some of their freed up capacity toward productive activities that increase output.”
Of the US workers expected to be affected, for example, 25% to 50% of their workload could be replaced, the researchers added.
“The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and increased productivity for non-displaced workers increases the possibility of labor productivity booms such as those that followed the advent of earlier general-purpose technologies such as the electric motor and the personal computer.”
— CNN’s Nicole Goodkind contributed to this report.